Diluvian's Weblog

2009 Sloan Follies Video

2009-05-15T12:54:00.004-04:00

Congratulations to the organizers of the 2009 Sloan Follies. It was a great, well run affair. I'm impressed by how funny many of the skits were.

Here is my contribution, which I'm pleased got good laughs at the show:

Game Console for the Developing World

2009-05-12T13:46:00.008-04:00

John F. Rizzo, CEO of Zeebo, was on the "digital distribution" panel at the the MIT Sloan Business in Gaming Conference last Friday. The Zeebo is a game console designed for the developing world.

It was launched recently in Brazil, and they plan to follow-up with launches in other developing countries, such as India and Russia. It operates on a card slightly larger than for a mobile phone. The idea is that it will download games over the 3G network instead of distributing by disc.

Here's a video on YouTube of the Zeebo:

In Brazil it costs about $200 (US), and they plan to reduce the cost to about $149 (US). You may think that is a lot for a product aimed at a developing country, but you need to consider that consoles such as the Xbox cost as much as $1000 (US). Contributors to the high price include high taxes to begin with, plus the fact that the same product is taxed at each point in the distribution channel. (for example, it is taxed when the importer imports it, then when he sells to the wholesaler, and when the wholesaler sells to the retailer.) Additionally, the $1000 price generally means that the store built in financing charges and you can pay over time, say $100/month for ten months.

You may ask, as my girlfriend did, what's so important about getting gaming consoles to the developing world? Well, probably benefits in at least three categories:

Education. Educational games can be played on this, which is important for teaching skills not available. For some people this (and their phone) will be their main contact with a computer. This could be a great platform for teaching programing, language, or anything else that requires a skill-set and is hard to teach in a developing country.
Work creation. Like the iPhone apps, this provides a venue for independent developers, at least for now.
Proof of concept. If a project such as this is profitable, then it encourages others to develop technology for the developing world.

Alternate Reality

2009-05-11T09:54:00.007-04:00

Susan Bonds, the CEO of 42 Entertainment gave the opening address at the MIT Sloan Business in Gaming conference last Friday. She gave us very engaging accounts of how her company has designed amazing alternate reality games (games that combine online and offline elements), which serve as powerful marketing.

For example, for a Nine Inch Nails album release, they planted a thumb drive with an unreleased track in a bathroom at a concert. A fan found it and posted it online, and other fans performed spectrographic analysis on it to find a NIN image embedded in the static. That led to websites purportedly sent back from the future (with warnings from the fictitious "US Bureau of Morality") and a whole intricate puzzle story about the rise of an authoritatian anti-art government coming to power. The game recruited fans into a "resistance movement" against the anti-art future goverment. One creative element was that when the CD's were released they were heat sensitive to reveal text on the disc surface after being played. The game ultimately ending with some fans attending a secret NIN concert.

You can see some of their case studies here on the 42 Entertainment website. In another game, to promote Batman Dark Knight, one part of the game had fans go to a real bakery to pick up a cake under a false name. The cake had a ringing phone in it, which was then used to provide directions over the rest of the game.

The Twitter tag for the conference was #MITBig

Jordan's Economic Outlook

2008-11-01T17:16:00.006-04:00

Here is a link to an excellent full report my friend authored on the risk profile for investment in Jordan.

This is the executive summary:
[CLICK ON THE IMAGE TO OPEN A READABLE VERSION OF THE EXEC SUMMARY].

I definitely recommend reading the full report, by his firm PIRC, if you have any interest in economic development especially in the Middle East.

Credit Card Rewards: Redeeming for Goods is a Scam

2008-10-26T15:48:00.004-04:00

When presented with two identical goods, any logical consumer should choose to purchase the lower priced option. But this obstacle is apparently overcome in the case of credit card point redemption.

For example, many credit cards (such as the one I have) offer points as rewards for purchases, and give the option of redeeming those points for cash or goods. The conversion rate for points to cash maxes out a 1/100, so 25,000 points can be redeemed for $250, and 50,000 points could be redeemed for $500.

But purchasing goods offers a much lower conversion rate. For example, a camera that on Amazon.com costs $160 in cash would cost the equivalent of $332 dollars (33,200 points) from the credit card company. A GPS that from Magellan costs $150 would cost in points $350 (35,000 points). By buying the goods with points, the consumer forgoes the cash and therefore pays an extra $172 dollars for the camera and an extra $200 for the GPS.

Obviously it would most benefit the consumer to redeem points for cash and buy the goods separately. (Additional benefit from this option is that the consumer would receive points for the additional purchase.)

So why do people redeem points goods? After all, the option wouldn't be available if no one used it. I think they are taking advantage of a psychological phenomenon whereby the consumer thinks (falsely) that they are getting something for free, and therefore become price insensitive. I would welcome your thoughts on this as well as further examples.

Financial meltdown prediction from a year ago

2008-10-15T00:21:00.002-04:00

Click here for a must see video clip of Peter Shiff predicting the financial meltdown over a year ago.

Interviews

2008-10-15T00:15:00.001-04:00

My first interviews of the season are tomorrow (or I guess actually later today). Wish me luck!

Complete Streets

2008-10-15T00:05:00.004-04:00

Here's a link to a great initiative for improving our cities:

The streets of our cities and towns ought to be for everyone, whether young or old, motorist or bicyclist, walker or wheelchair user, bus rider or shopkeeper. But too many of our streets are designed only for speeding cars, or worse, creeping traffic jams. They’re unsafe for people on foot or bike — and unpleasant for everybody.

Now, in communities across the country, a movement is growing to complete the streets. States, cities and towns are asking their planners, engineers and designers to build road networks that welcome all citizens.

The big news is that Governor Schwarzenegger signed this into law in California.

Ex-communication: useful for entrepreneurs in emerging economies and medieval Jewish communities

2008-10-12T15:08:00.009-04:00

I crossed the bridge to BU last week to attend Kol Nidre, the opening service of Yom Kippur, after which Rabbi Polak invited us to a class. (As he said, what else could you possibly have planned for tonight?) His teaching focused on a line from tractate “Yoma” of the Mishnah (alt link):

On the Day of Atonement it is forbidden to eat, drink, bathe, put on any sort of oil, put on a sandal, or engage in sexual relations.

The Torah portion is not as explicit as the Midrash in its list of prohibitions:

In the seventh month, on the tenth day of the month, you shall practice self-denial; and you shall do no manner of work, neither the citizen nor the alien who resides among you. For on this day atonement shall be made for you to cleanse you of all your sins; you shall be clean before the Lord. It shall be a sabbath of complete rest for you, and you shall practice self-denial; it is a law for all time.

(Other relevant verses)

Since the midrash prohibitions are so extensive, the Rabbi asks, in what other situation is eating, drinking, bathing, anointing, and wearing leather on the feet prohibited? Answer: The frequently persecuted Jewish communities of medieval Europe used the threat of a limited form of excommunication, called niddui, to keep their members in line. The niddui was announced by the blowing of the shofar, after which the community members weren’t supposed to come within ~6’ of the offender or eat with him, and the offender was not supposed to cut his hair, wear shoes, etc. So on Yom Kippur, we are essentially placing ourselves in niddui for the day due to our sins over the year, and that’s why we blow the shofar, don’t eat, don’t bathe, and don’t wear leather shoes.

As a business student the concept of niddui is interesting also for its implications in emerging markets. For class we read this article “Private Order under Dysfunctional Public Order” from the Michigan Law Review (Recommended read. Most of the article is available online.), in which the authors demonstrate how in emerging markets that do not have strong institutions to support small businesses, such as a functioning court of law or credit bureaus, entrepreneurs still manage to flourish by creating extra-legal systems of their own. For example, in the ethnic Chinese community in Vietnam if one business cheated another business then the entire community would boycott the cheater. By looking at these communities which have created niddui of their own, we can perhaps better understand the context in which the concept evolved in the Jewish tradition, and what life may have been like in a Jewish village in medieval Europe.

Boston Real Estate Market

2008-10-07T01:11:00.004-04:00

I put together some numbers for an email on the Boston real estate market, and thought I'd share them here with you. Below I pasted the spreadsheet with some stats (click on it for a readable view), but here are two highlights:

I estimate that the total commissions collected by real estate firms for sales in Boston has decreased 24% (from $177MM to $142MM) this past year compared to the year October 7, 2004 to 2005. However, the decline in commissions has not been steady, with the sharpest decline this past year. I expect this to translate to market consolidation of brokerages.
Looking at all property types, average sale prices and listing prices have not fallen significantly over the past year, and in fact have risen 5% to 7% over October 2004-2005 in Boston. Rather than affecting price, the market slowdown has most affected volume and the number of days it takes for a property to sell. This may not be true for all market segments, but it is at least superficially promising that value has not decreased.

[click on the image for a readable view of the spreadsheet]
I'd be interested to hear your comments on what you think this means.

Fast Fluffy Eggs

2008-10-05T12:04:00.006-04:00

So you want a real breakfast but are in a rush? These are my weekday morning quick breakfast recipes. Minimal prep time, minimal cleanup, and the eggs come out fluffier than if you'd fried them.

Fluffy microwave egg omelet:
-beat an egg in a microwave-safe bowl
-toss in whatever filling you desire (veggies, cheese, cheerios)
-microwave on high for 45 seconds. (or until fluffy)
-salt and pepper to taste. eat. (be careful, it's hot.)

Mountain bread:
-Place a slice of bread in a microwave-safe bowl, so the edges of the bread curve up slightly against the bowl.
-Crack an egg on top of the bread
-microwave on high for 45 seconds. (or until fluffy)
-salt and pepper to taste. eat. (be careful, it's hot.)

New Hedge Fund

2008-10-04T17:50:00.003-04:00

The financial sector has traditionally supplied a good portion of new MBA's with jobs, but with the current financial crisis those jobs are drying up. This affects me because all those finance people are now applying for jobs that I want. So let me suggest instead that they consider this new hedge fund: Strategery Capital Management.

From their website:

Strategery has several competitive advantages compared to other hedge funds.
We have approximately as much in capital as all other hedge funds combined, so we can negotiate best-in-the-business terms with counterparties.
We have an unlimited ability to raise more capital even in times of distress. Therefore the traditional limits to arbitrage (irrational return-chasing investors) does not apply.
We have a close relationship with the federal courts so counterparties seeking to terminate a transaction with us face not only civil litigation costs and losses, but potential criminal liabilities.
We are not limited to looking for opportunities with positive expected returns and so can cast a broader net across the investment universe, thus extending our efficient frontier beyond what other hedge funds can offer.

P.S. Yes, this is a joke.

sensitivity analysis

2008-10-03T00:06:00.006-04:00

Quote from an invitation explaining the reason for the event, a soccer match between two ethnic-group clubs :

Why: To increase awareness of all ethnic groups at [school] (and to show that Africans/Minorities are better than the Latinos at Soccer).

I'm glad we don't go overboard with political correctness here.

busy busy

2008-10-02T10:30:00.002-04:00

Hello all, I've been back at school now for a month. I haven't blogged more due to the crazy pace of events. I'm taking a heavy course load with classes finance II, industrial economics, two different marketing classes, global entrepreneurship, a negotiation class, and a leadership class with a well-known CEO. Also, recruiting is in full swing and I'm trying to make a good impression on my potential future employers, and I'm putting together a team for my start-up. Recently I told my Reserve commander that I'm planning to leave the Army, and so now I've got to start the paperwork.

But I will try to post more. =) To start, here are links to the company Endeavor, an interesting non-profit that invests and mentors entrepreneurs in developing countries, and an article in the Economist about them. I'm going to South America over the winter with a team from school to assist one of their companies.

Update - Skype call forwarding

2008-08-30T09:35:00.004-04:00

Update to my review of Skype service: the cost of call forwarding is included in the subscription cost, and they've updated their help page to say so. Here is the email from Skype Support:

Thank you for contacting Skype Support.

You can set up a call forwarding feature, and let all the incoming calls to a number you wish to receive while you are away from your computer. If the country of your forwarding number is included in your subscription, the call cost will be covered with your subscription as well.

Please feel free to contact us again if you have any questions or concerns, and we will assist you further.

Best Regards,
Skype Support

The Final Medal Counts

2008-08-28T00:46:00.008-04:00

By popular demand, this is an update to my previous post looking at the final Beijing 2008 Summer Olympic Medal rankings by GDP, population, and a few other things:

Athletes from 86 countries received at least one medal.

The Bahamas receive top honors for total number of medals in proportion to their population. (2 medals and a population of around 307,451), followed by Jamaica and Iceland. Armenia drops to ninth place. Guess the islands got something.

Top 10 - Ranked by Total Medals to Population
Rank	Country	Gold Medals	Total Medals	Population
1	Bahamas	0	2	307,451
2	Jamaica	6	11	2,804,332
3	Iceland	0	1	304,367
4	Slovenia	1	5	2,007,711
5	Australia	14	46	20,600,856
6	New Zealand	3	9	4,173,460
7	Norway	3	10	4,644,457
8	Cuba	2	24	11,423,952
9	Armenia	0	6	2,968,586
10	Belarus	4	19	9,685,768

Meanwhile, Zimbabwe led for number of medals in proportion to per capita GDP, followed by China and Kenya.

Top 10 - Ranked by Total Medals to Per Capita GDP
Rank	Country	Gold Medals	Total Medals	Per Capita GDP
1	Zimbabwe	1	4	$ 179
2	China	51	100	$ 5,256
3	Kenya	5	14	$ 1,551
4	Ethiopia	4	7	$ 795
5	Cuba	2	24	$ 4,474
6	Russia	23	72	$ 14,840
7	Ukraine	7	27	$ 6,960
8	North Korea	2	6	$ 1,704
9	Uzbekistan	1	6	$ 2,269
10	US	36	110	$ 45,553

Pakistan is the most populous country not to receive any medals, followed by Bangladesh and the Philippines. The 10 largest countries not to receive any medals are:

Country	Population
Pakistan	167,762,040
Bangladesh	153,546,901
Philippines	92,681,453
Congo	66,514,506
Burma	47,758,181
Tanzania	40,213,162
Uganda	31,367,972
Nepal	29,519,114
Peru	29,180,899
Iraq	28,221,181
Saudi Arabia	28,161,417

The 5 smallest countries to receive medals:

Country	Population
Iceland	304,367
Bahamas	307,451
Bahrain	718,306
Trinidad and Tobago	1,047,366
Estonia	1,307,605

Within the Axis of Evil North Korea led in total medals, gold medals, medals to population, and medals to per capita GDP. Iraq was pretty much out of the running

Country	Gold	Total	Population	Per Capita GDP
North Korea	2	6	23,479,089	$1,704
Iran	1	2	65,875,223	$11,431
Iraq	0	0	28,221,181	$3,625

For additional rankings, check out the links on this previous post.

Review of Skype Service

2008-08-27T23:45:00.004-04:00

In my fancy new graduate apartment building there are no phones, at least not the traditional analog sort. Noting that most students have cell phones, we were informed by email that in lieu of landlines there would be four Ethernet jacks per bed and we could certainly use one of the jacks to connect a VOIP (Voice Over Internet Protocol …i.e. a phone that uses the internet) phone service. The suggested list of providers was: Skype, AOL, Gizmo, AT&T Callvantage, Verizon Voicewing, and Vonage.

I chose Skype because it seemed like the best deal. The basic service is free and lets you call other Skype users from your computer. For, $3 per month however, you can make unlimited calls in the US and Canada, and for an additional $30 per year you get a phone number at which people can call you (and you can choose your number from a list of available numbers). It includes voicemail but not call forwarding for which you must pay extra for the forwarded calls. [8/30/08 UPDATE: Call forwarding is included]

Also, I bought a special VOIP phone on Amazon, the Belkin Desktop Phone for Skype, for $80, although you can certainly use the service from your computer without a special phone. I bought the phone because it plugs directly into the Ethernet jack completely independent of my computer so I can use the phone even when my computer is off. So all told, I’ve got unlimited domestic phone service for under $9/month ($3 to call out, $2.50 to receive calls, and $3.33 for the phone if you depreciate it over 2 years).

The sound quality is surprisingly good. I’ve been making calls to landlines and cell phones for a week now using the Belkin and the call quality is almost as good as on a landline, and certainly better than on my cell phone. The only disadvantage so far is that to dial to the US from the Belkin phone I have to precede each number with +1, but that’s hardly an obstacle. (Other disadvantages include that the phone won’t work when the power is out, won’t work when the internet is down, and won’t identify your location to emergency services, but also having a cell phone mitigates those risks.) One feature I really like is that I can enter my contacts either on the phone or on my computer to the Skype program and the phone automatically updates to include these so I can speed dial them.

One piece of advice to others setting up their VOIP phones in a dorm room: give the phone half an hour to register itself with the network. My phone returned the message “cannot connect to the internet” for that long while I waited on hold for tech support before resolving itself.

A Race of Convicts

2008-08-26T11:14:00.004-04:00

I was flipping through the book I Hear America Talking, a history of American words and phrases and came across this entry for "A Race of Convicts:"

...a term that angered the colonists and was a fairly common insulting sobriquet used by the British... It was an awful thing to say, especially insulting because it contained a lot of truth: between 1607 and 1776 about 40% of the English who came to the colonies were convicts, drunks, run-aways, debtors, and others who had less than idealistic reasons for starting over in a new land.

Our contemporary anti-immigration advocates should keep that 40% figure in mind concerning their ancestors since in the current wave of illegal immigrants/undocumented workers, the vast majority of the 12 million illegal aliens estimated to be in the US are otherwise law abiding.

Privatized Mass Transit

2008-08-24T23:37:00.003-04:00

If you've travelled in developing countries, chances are you've seen shared taxis. Depending on the country they range from safe and efficient to incredibly dangerous, and in their best cases provide an example for a system of privatized mass transit that could be adopted to supplement automobiles and the traditional mass transit systems in the developed world.

One example that bears holding up: the Sherut of Israel. These vans are privately owned and operated and supplement the extensive traditional bus system. Some operate on fixed routes, both inter- and intra- city, and they often will deviate to accommodate a drop-off. They have every incentive to respond instantly to the market, and they do. You want to get picked on this corner and go to that super-market? Sure. The bus service is offering a fare discount on Thursdays? We'll beat it.

Used in conjunction with other approaches, our cities could greatly reduce traffic congestion and improve their mass transit systems without massive public investment simply by licensing private shared taxis.

The Other Oil Crisis

2008-08-23T23:19:00.004-04:00

We've all heard about the oil crisis: the price of oil is high, we may be running out, the car exhaust causes health problems, and, oh yeah, it's contributing to global warming (or weirding.) And we're all familiar with the innovation the crisis is spurring in automobiles: electric cars, hybrid cars, fuel cell cars, and solar cars to name a few. But those innovations fail to address deeper concerns with an automobile centric society:

DEATH AND INJURY. The US Department of Transportation announced that in 2007 there were 41,059 deaths and 2,490,000 people injured in vehicle accidents, and those were the lowest figures in fourteen years. (As Robert Reich points out, the only reason the numbers are down is because the economy is slow and so people are driving less.) If a foreign country attacked and injured 1% of those numbers we'd be at war and spending billions of dollars, so why not address this issue. Also, as the developing world aspires to the US standard of living, we should consider that already over 1.2 million people die worldwide in vehicle accidents.
LOST TIME. In the US it is estimated the average driver spends 38 hours stuck in traffic per year. (In Los Angeles 98 hours, Houston 56 hours). This is not just frustrating, it is time away from families and time lost from productive working. Unlike time on a train, you can't work (safely) while driving. The cost of congestion is estimated to be over $78.2 billion annually.
SOCIAL INTERACTION. Cars are bubbles. The only way drivers communicate with others on the highway is with horns, lights, and often the middle finger. How many people have met their husbands or wives while commuting in separate cars on the highway? Sharing a public space, like a train compartment, would result in increased public discourse and a greater feeling of community, which we could use when addressing some of our other problems.
RESOURCE USE. The roadways are publicly funded for construction and repair. From 1998 to 2003 US highway spending alone cost approximately $80 billion per year. And building more roads only adds to the cost, and uses up more land.

Cars are of course an attractive method of travel. But often we think they are so attractive simply because they are the only reliable option. The time is for our leaders to make a serious commitment to building a public transportation system worthy of a first rate nation. Yes, there will always be times when an automobile is simply the best way to go, like on moving day, or to transport people to the hospital. For the rest of the time, we need reliable, clean, safe, fast public transportation.

Russian Casualty Figures in Georgia

2008-08-21T10:28:00.005-04:00

A Russian general announced yesterday that in the conflict with Georgia 64 Russian soldiers died and 323 were wounded, a revision from earlier Russian statements that 74 had been killed and 170 wounded. Georgia's President Saakashvili said last week that by the "most conservative estimates" his armed forces had killed 400 Russian soldiers.

Comparing casualty figures for score keeping is a meaningless act, and we will probably never know the true cost in lives for any of the parties, military or civilian. What is interesting, though, is that the recent figures given by Russia seem to be plausible, a break from earlier practice.

Here are some possible interpretations of the numbers:

1. THEY LIE. Russia is well known for hiding their casualty figures in the Chechnya conflict. Soldiers' Mothers of Russia estimated 11,000 dead and 30,000 wounded Russian soldiers in Chechnya from 1999 through 2002, compared to official Russian statements at the time of 4,705 killed (a figure 57% lower than what Mothers of Russia estimated). If the same ratio were applied to yesterday's official statements then there were really 150 Russian soldiers killed. (Obviously there is no reason to think the same ratio would be used, and for all we know the number could be much higher).

2. THEY TELL THE TRUTH. Unlike in Chechnya, Russia won a swift and decisive military victory in Georgia and is now experiencing intense diplomatic pressure from the West to withdraw. Russia is being portrayed as the bad guys, and therefore may have an incentive to truthfully or even over-report their casualty figures in order to argue that the fight was not so one-sided.

3. GEORGIA CAN'T COUNT. Enemy body counts by any army, especially one in retreat, are hardly reliable, and the Georgians certainly had incentive to overstate their effectiveness. Also, they may have counted South Ossetian militia and Russian military as the same enemy since they were fighting both, and included both in the Russian casualties.

Move In Day

2008-08-21T09:20:00.004-04:00

Thanks to my recent return from military service in Iraq, the school housing lottery administrators gave me my first choice housing, a semi-furnished studio efficiency in a brand new graduate dorm. It's a massive multi-building complex, replete with a pub and small weight room. If it weren't for classes I'd never have to go outside.

Now that I've settled in (and spent over $300 at Target), I'm ready to focus on the tasks ahead:
1. Study up for Finance II (i.e. try to remember what discount rates are)
2. Attempt to meet and befriend my new classmates (since my friends have all graduated)
3. Research the technology for my business idea
4. Write more

Iraq Exports Need to Grow

2008-08-18T14:03:00.002-04:00

As the Memri Economic Blog reported, Iraq’s central bureau of statistics announced that total Iraqi exports of oil and goods rose by $11.9 billion from 2006 to 2007. ($41.26 billion in 2007 compared with $29.36 billion in 2006). However, $10.92 billion of that increase (92%) was due to crude oil. Since then oil exports have further increased, not just in value but in quantity, thanks in part to the improved security situation.

But, as I pointed out in my previous entry, the oil sector doesn't and won't employ many people (less than 1% of the population at best), so gains in oil production do not translate to increased employment. In a 2006 estimate the CIA estimated unemployment of 18-30%, while the Brooking Institution estimated 25-40% last year. In some villages it is much higher, and it has become clear that without employment there cannot be stability.

US administered microgrants are a small start, nurturing small service-sector businesses and restaurants, as are the small US sponsored "Industrial Zone" for vehicle maintenance, but neither can be expected to generate exports. Instead those service jobs will depend on the health of the oil industry and will suffer the swings of the market, more so when the US departs. At some point in the future we can expect the world to shift away from hydrocarbons, at which point Iraq better have an alternative money maker. The only other serious sector at this time is government, either employment by the Government of Iraq or payments from the US to stand guard (i.e. Sons of Iraq).

This article reports that one large company, Diyala Food Company, shut down, releasing thousands of employees. This is particularly sad when you consider that the US buys hundreds of millions of dollars of food for its military in Iraq, none of it from Iraq. The US should find a way to leverage its forces' huge logistical demands in Iraq, for everything from construction supplies and housing trailers to food. That would create companies that would be able to continue functioning after the US withdrawal.

The US and the Government of Iraq should consider the South Korean example. Before the Korean War the north was actually wealthier than the south due to greater natural resources. Since then, South Korea has experienced one of the fastest economic growth rates in history, largely due to heavy government sponsorship of large companies in key industries for export. There are many differences between Iraq and South Korea, large oil reserves in Iraq being one of them, but also similarities that may be instructive and which I will attempt to further explore on this blog in the future.

In Loving Memory

2008-08-17T17:41:00.010-04:00

Last Monday my dog temporarily lost his vision so we rushed him to the vet hospital emergency room. After three nights the doctors diagnosed him with terminal cancer and predicted a life expectancy of a few weeks to months.

On Thursday he came home from the hospital a different dog. Before he would swallow whole any human food I gave him, and sometimes the hand holding it; now he refused even the finest ground beef bought specially for him. Before he could take marathon length walks; now he could barely drag himself to the bushes by the front door. Worst of all, his tail, which previously could have been harnessed as an alternative energy source to power China, now hung straight down between his legs.

He passed away today and my family is sad for the loss. We're also grateful that he was in our lives. In the bargain made eons ago between our two species, I got a good deal with this one. My family and I loved him and cared for him, but he gave at least as good as he got. For example, he somehow always knew instinctively if someone was sick, or even if my mother had a headache, and would shower them with extra affection.

He also taught us how to measure happiness in doggy units. That is, a walk makes you happy. A treat makes you happy. Seeing your family makes you very happy. Sun or snow makes you happy. Chasing a wild turkey, peanut butter and jelly sandwiches, car rides, and chest deep snow makes you ecstatic. Baths make you sad. Drying off after a bath makes you happy.

A guard dog he was not; he just assumed everyone was good. Deliverymen to our house didn’t just leave packages. They rang the door bell and waited for their visit with the dog and his 100-horsepower tail. Sometimes the dry cleaner stops by twice in the same week, I think just to say hi.

I’ll always remember how joyfully he would gallop across a field of wild flowers for no reason except to run. We may have given him love, food, and care, but he gave us back an unconditional love and taught us that it’s the small things that are best to enjoy.

In loving memory of my Buddy, February 14, 1996 - August 17, 2008.

Scooped the Wall Street Journal

2008-08-17T16:13:00.011-04:00

UPDATE 28 AUG 08: NEW POST WITH UPDATED FINAL STANDINGS

Last Wednesday, in an entry called Armenia Leads Olympic Medal Count, I wrote about ranking Olympic countries by the ratio of their medals to population or per capita GDP instead of by the number of gold medals or their total medal count.

Yesterday's Wall Street Journal (Weekend Edition) made the same points in an article titled The Glory of Just Showing Up.

So I'm thrilled that the level of creativity and journalism at the Wall Street Journal is sufficient to meet the standards of this blog. =)

Today The New York Times Olympic Blog also published a response, in which they rank the countries using a weighted system (4 points for gold, 2 points for silver, 1 point for bronze). By their system China is in the lead.

Yesterday The Raw Feed proposed first applying a weighting system and then determining the medal to population ratio. By their count Australia is winning.

For updated rankings of total medals or gold medals by population without weighting, Simon Forsyth is keeping tally.

1000 Cameramen Named Bob at Beijing Olympics

2008-08-15T12:13:00.002-04:00

If you've been watching the Olympics you may have noticed a multitude of cameramen wearing blue tunics emblazoned in large white letters "BOB."

No, their names are not all Bob. Actually, it stands for Beijing Olympic Broadcasting, which shoots video and radio for the media pool.

The left picture is of a BOB cameraman in action, and the second picture is of Ma Guoli, COO of BOB, in front of headquarters in 2005.

BOB projects their broadcasts will reach a "cumulative worldwide audience of more than 30 billion people", which is impressive considering there are only ~6.6 billion people in the world.

US Military Offer Blanket Support to Georgia

2008-08-14T12:33:00.006-04:00

In yesterday's speech President Bush promised Georgia a "vigorous and ongoing" humanitarian mission carried out by the American military using aircraft and naval forces. Today Defense Secretary Robert Gates said there was no need for a US military force in Georgia (other than the "vigorous and ongoing" humanitarian mission.)

So how does that translate into action on the ground?

The "Ongoing" part:

A. 130 US troops already assigned to train the Georgian military will remain in the country. These are most likely Special Forces troops. The US has had trainers there since 2002 to train four Georgian Battalions.

B. Since 1992 the US has reportedly given Georgia $1.5 billion worth in military equipment and training as part of an effort to modernize their military to face Al Qaeda and prepare them to join NATO (and to fight in Iraq). This past year they received $6.5 million worth. It's not clear if we gave them any heavy equipment though, or just uniforms, small arms, and six helicopters. We will probably continue to give them this support, or I'd guess increase it to make up for their losses.

The "Vigorous" part:

C. Medical supplies, shelters, and bedding. The first C-17 plane landed yesterday, and another is planned today. At this pace, one planeload a day. Each C-17 can bring in up to eighteen "463L pallets", each with usable dimensions of 84" x 104", so approximately 5500 cubic feet of blankets a day.

D. An additional 12 troops to "assess the Georgian government’s humanitarian needs."

Interpretation:
Compared to the US response to the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the US aid for Georgia is more vigorous in speech than in practice, which we should interpret two-fold:

1. A message to the Russians that the US will not militarily confront them and will recognize the de facto annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia. However, the US is drawing a red line around Georgia's internal lines of communications by sending its own troops on the pretext of delivering blankets, effectively saying to Russia, leave the rest of Georgia alone.

2. A message to the Georgians that while they're US allies, they fell into Russia's trap on their own and US troops won't start World War III over two remote break-away provinces with populations that prefer Russia.

Armenia leads Olympic Medal Count

2008-08-13T10:25:00.003-04:00

UPDATE 28 AUG 08: NEW POST WITH UPDATED FINAL STANDINGS

The Wall Street Journal today noted a controversy over the Olympic medal count, whether to rank countries by their total medal count (the US convention) or by the number of gold medals. The Beijing Olympic page ranks countries by the count of gold medals, which places China in first with 17 golds and the US in second with 10 golds, even though the US has won 29 medals overall, compared to China's 27.

The controversy is more stark further down the list. For example, Zimbabwe with 3 silvers is ranked behind Thailand with one gold, and Ukraine with 4 bronzes is behind Vietnam with one silver.

As the WSJ notes, the danger of ranking by gold medals instead of total medals is that some countries (Australia, Japan, France, Germany) are already cutting funding for sports that don't have a shot at being number one.

Usually no statistical method gives a complete picture, and the medal count is no exception. Let's take a look here at how the medal count would look if we weighted the medals counts different ways, for example, by the country's population or per capita GDP. (This is using population and GDP purchasing power parity data from the CIA Factbook, and the medal count as of this morning 13 August 2008 around 10am EST).

As you can see on the below tables, the US drops to a still respectable 9th place when measuring total medals to per capita GDP. China, still a developing country, stays in second place, and Georgia closely trails Russia.

When measuring medals to total population, Armenia is the winner with 3 medals for a population of less than 3 million. Neither the US, China, or Russia makes the top ten of that ranking. If the US won as many medals as Armenia per population, then the US would have over 300 medals.

The point is that there are multiple legitimate ways to measure medal success, and we would do well to remember that the goal of the Olympic movement is "to contribute to building a peaceful and better world by educating youth through sport practised without discrimination of any kind and in the Olympic spirit, which requires mutual understanding with a spirit of friendship, solidarity and fair play." Of course it's far easier to just count medals.

Ranked by Total Medals to Per Capita GDP
Rank	Country	Gold	Total	GDP per capita
1	Zimbabwe	0	3	$179
2	China	17	27	$5,256
3	North Korea	1	7	$1,704
4	Togo	0	1	$889
5	Kyrgyztan	0	2	$1,960
6	Russia	2	12	$14,840
7	Georgia	2	3	$4,427
8	Cuba	0	3	$4,474
9	US	10	29	$45,553
10	Tajikistan	0	1	$1,639

Ranked by Total Medals to Population
Rank	Country	Gold	Total	Population
1	Armenia	0	3	2,968,586
2	Georgia	2	3	4,630,841
3	Australia	4	12	20,600,856
4	Switzerland	1	4	7,581,520
5	Slovenia	0	1	2,007,711
6	Finland	1	2	5,244,749
7	Kyrgyztan	0	2	5,356,869
8	Azerbaijan	1	3	8,177,717
9	Slovakia	1	2	5,455,407
10	Mongolia	0	1	2,996,081

Oil sector won't save Iraq by itself

2008-08-12T10:40:00.002-04:00

Yes, Iraq will have a budget surplus thanks to the oil sector, as much as $50bn. That's of course good news as it gives the government options, and is an indication of lessening attacks and corruption in that sector.

The oil sector in Iraq, however, has always traditionally accounted for over 95% of foreign exchange earnings, but even in 1997 employed only 0.6% of the population, according to the 2004 Journal of Economic Perspectives. (sorry the full text isn't available free). That split is typical of the oil industry: high capital, low employment.

Therefore it is unreasonable to expect the oil sector to provide enough jobs to promote security, even if it were to fully recover, and beat persistent corruption. So the question then is what will the GOI (Government of Iraq) do with the money. The right thing would be to invest heavily in industry and education to promote the economy and keep people from the temptation of accepting free-lance insurgent work. Supposedly the insurgents were offering over $500 to place an IED, which is a good deal if you're hungry. We need to start thinking of security as an economic competitor as well.

Big four sectors in Iraq in 1997:
government (20.15&)
wholesale and retail trade (19.3%)
agriculture (18.35%)
unemployment (17%)

funny military pictures

2008-08-12T10:15:00.001-04:00

These are old but still funny military pictures.

My favorite is of the Australians bicycle jousting. Coalition troops are forbidden alcohol in Iraq and Kuwait (although some gets smuggled in), so that was probably done sober.

Many US troops receive a four-day pass sometime during their tour to Qatar, where drinking is permitted on the US air base at the designated bar. Upon reporting in soldiers are issued a ration card for up to three drinks a day. Across base the British have their own bar, the Muff, where the ration card is not strictly enforced but a host of other eccentric rules are. For example, wearing your reflective belt inside earns you a $20 penalty, as does not saying please and thank you to the bartender.

Iraq Private Sector Falters

2008-08-12T01:08:00.001-04:00

The Coalition can do more for the recovery of Iraq by buying more supplies in Iraq instead of in surrounding countries.

The New York Times reported August 11, 2008 in this article that "the number of Iraqi government employees has nearly doubled since 2005, while private enterprise has failed to flourish amid the damaged infrastructure."

The article does not mention that Coalition Forces import nearly all of their supplies from surrounding countries, namely Kuwait, Turkey, and Jordan, instead of using their massive logistical requirements to incubate Iraqi businesses. The imports amount to hundreds of 40-foot refrigerated trucks, flatbeds, and tankers per day, such as those operated by the company Agility, which celebrated sending its 100,000th truck into Iraq for Coalition Forces almost a year ago, in November 2007.

In addition to hiring contractors to import materials including food, fuel, water, spare parts, and construction materials, Coalition Forces hire foreign companies under the LOGCAP contract to provide "field operations such as dining and laundry facilities, housing, sanitation, waste management, postal services, and morale, welfare and recreation activities; and other operations, including engineering and construction, support to communication networks, transportation and cargo services, and facilities maintenance and repair.

What if we purchased some of these materials from the Iraqis? If they built the Ziggurat of Ur over 4100 years ago, surely they can construct brick barracks today. We should be looking at ways to actively build industry in Iraq, even if it means loaning billions of dollars and creating free trade zones on our bases. The goal is not to save money, although we might, but rather to create jobs and a viable economy that will keep growing after we leave.

This article highlights a recent initiative to incubate Iraqi operated vehicle maintenance businesses on Anaconda, one of the largest US logistical bases in Iraq, and demonstrates that the security obstacles are not unsurmountable. Vehicle maintenance is not enough, however, as those jobs won't last when the US departs; Iraq needs to build exports.

Access to the world market is a necessity, and the formation of the Iraqi Trucking Network is a positive step, although of course they need something to ship, and its area of operation seems to be limited (the article says it operated successfully between Fallujah, Al Asad, Taqaddum, Ramadi and Jordan: all Sunni dominated areas in Al Anbar province).