US Military Offer Blanket Support to Georgia

In yesterday's speech President Bush promised Georgia a "vigorous and ongoing" humanitarian mission carried out by the American military using aircraft and naval forces. Today Defense Secretary Robert Gates said there was no need for a US military force in Georgia (other than the "vigorous and ongoing" humanitarian mission.)

So how does that translate into action on the ground?

The "Ongoing" part:

A. 130 US troops already assigned to train the Georgian military will remain in the country. These are most likely Special Forces troops. The US has had trainers there since 2002 to train four Georgian Battalions.

B. Since 1992 the US has reportedly given Georgia $1.5 billion worth in military equipment and training as part of an effort to modernize their military to face Al Qaeda and prepare them to join NATO (and to fight in Iraq). This past year they received $6.5 million worth. It's not clear if we gave them any heavy equipment though, or just uniforms, small arms, and six helicopters. We will probably continue to give them this support, or I'd guess increase it to make up for their losses.

The "Vigorous" part:

C. Medical supplies, shelters, and bedding. The first C-17 plane landed yesterday, and another is planned today. At this pace, one planeload a day. Each C-17 can bring in up to eighteen "463L pallets", each with usable dimensions of 84" x 104", so approximately 5500 cubic feet of blankets a day.

D. An additional 12 troops to "assess the Georgian government’s humanitarian needs."

Interpretation:
Compared to the US response to the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the US aid for Georgia is more vigorous in speech than in practice, which we should interpret two-fold:

1. A message to the Russians that the US will not militarily confront them and will recognize the de facto annexation of South Ossetia and Abkhazia by Russia. However, the US is drawing a red line around Georgia's internal lines of communications by sending its own troops on the pretext of delivering blankets, effectively saying to Russia, leave the rest of Georgia alone.

2. A message to the Georgians that while they're US allies, they fell into Russia's trap on their own and US troops won't start World War III over two remote break-away provinces with populations that prefer Russia.